UEFA Coefficient Analysis 25/26: Qualifiers Week 3

We are at an interesting stage of the UEFA coefficient battles for the 2025/26 season. The second qualifying round first legs for the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Conference League just transpired, with 49 countries having teams in action. This round is one of the most crucial of the summer, especially since 50 sides will be eliminated after the UECL’s return legs next week.

After the third week of qualifying round action, here is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis.

Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, since it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Qualifiers Week 3

Battle for 50th: North Macedonia Closing the Gap

The battle for 50th spot in the UEFA coefficient ranking was largely a disappointment last week. Only one of the eight countries that could do so had multiple teams win. That worked out to be quite ideal for some, but disastrous for others.

Northern Ireland and North Macedonia were the biggest winners this week, especially the latter. They are now one win away from catching (and passing) Luxembourg for 50th place. With six wins on the season so far, they are on the cusp of climbing their way out of a tricky situation. Shkëndija in particular has impressed, with two wins and a draw to their credit. If they finish off FCSB, that almost surely will put their country in the top 50.

Northern Ireland had a better response, as Dungannon Swifts gave them an unlikely win. They earned half of their season’s points this week, which gives them a much better shot at holding off those below them. They desperately need at least one team in Q3, otherwise it will end badly for them.

Belarus and Andorra were the only other countries to obtain 0.333 or more points this week. If either of them can get one or more teams in Q3, that could seal their places in the top 50. Montenegro is just about clear of the bottom five, and probably needs just one side to go another round further.

The situation for Luxembourg, Georgia, and especially Wales are particularly dire. None of them have teams left in the UCL. Seeing that two of the three earned no points last week, they can seldom afford another misstep. If they lose their remaining teams this week, that is a death knell for them, and will guarantee a bottom five finish.

So, heading into next week, the key countries to look out for are the three with the fewest points – Luxembourg, Georgia, and Wales. If they fail to turn things around, we will almost surely have our bottom five set very early on, bar a Gibraltarian miracle.

Battle for 33rd/38th: Ireland, Finland Impress

It was a largely average week in the UEFA coefficient race for top 33/top 38. No one truly eliminated themselves this week, with only two countries making an impression. Ireland and Finland were easily the biggest winners.

After a poor showing in the first qualifying round – saved by HJK’s remarkable comeback – Finland had to step up this round to not only keep their hopes of 33rd alive, but to avoid dropping out of the top 38. They managed to do this quite well, collecting a pair of wins and a draw. It is now a question of whether they can go up from here. If KuPS can secure league phase football, that will go a long way. Then, it will be on Ilves and HJK to go as far as possible.

Ireland has also impressed, especially considering the fact they only have three teams in Europe this term. Although Shelbourne lost in the UCL, the blow was softened by Shamrock Rovers and St. Patrick’s doing their job in the UECL. Assuming the Shels earn a league phase spot, this could really be a very good summer for Irish football, particularly given the circumstances.

It was a rather average week for everyone else, though Liechtenstein ended up with no points. Vaduz’s surprising home loss already puts them behind the eight ball. Of course, they can still recover this tie, but there is now no room for error. Iceland, Moldova, and Faroe Islands also went without wins. Two of the three have their champions in the UCL (for now), so they are still okay. It is the Faroes under the most pressure. Even with Víkingur Gøta getting a bye to UECL Q3, they will badly need least one of KÍ or HB to join them.

Heading into next week’s deciders, the chasing pack for 33rd will be under the microscope. Having at least two teams in Q3 is vital, so the pressure will be on for all of them, especially Latvia and Bosnia, who are already lost two sides.

Battle for 22nd/29th: Azeris in Awe

Many of the countries in the race for 22nd had a decent week. However, if there was one nation who stood out above the rest, it had to be Azerbaijan.

Trying to hold off Bulgaria below them for 29th place, it was an excellent showing from all four Azeri sides. A repeat performance in the return legs will likely see them pass Ukraine, and truly mount a chase for 22nd. They, along with Slovenia and Bulgaria, are the only ones to have reached 1.000 so far. The difference is, they did so in the fewest matches.

Serbia also had a much-needed positive week, earning 0.625 points. Crvena zvezda and Partizan Belgrade both won, picking up some crucial UEFA coefficient points for their country. Radnički 1923 also claimed a draw in their first leg at home, which comes in handy. With that said, none of the four ties are done, and next week will show how seriously we can take them.

As for everyone else, it was 0.500 points for Croatia, Hungary, and Slovakia. That provides the opportunity to improve, or end up in a worse situation. Slovenia and Bulgaria won 0.375 points each, with the latter failing to even collect a win. That could become problematic if the trend continues.

Romania was definitely the biggest loser for the week. No wins at all, coupled with two shocking defeats, especially FCSB’s. Expectations are high on them this year, so this is definitely a poor start. If they fail to recover from this week, that could do them in.

Watch out for how next week pans out. There are already guaranteed a few eliminations, which will certainly make things interesting. No one is safe in their position yet, though we may have a lot more conclusions after the second qualifying round concludes.

Battle for 12th/15th: Chasing Pack Have Good Week

The race for places 11 through 15 got underway this week as well. For the most part, countries in this UEFA coefficient battle started off quite well. Only one really stood out as a big disappointment. Of course, that would be Greece.

The Greeks lost two of their three games, the only nation in this group to have multiple losses. Of course, that is not an ideal start. AEK Athens and Aris Thessaloniki will need to go as far as possible here, as they are the key in determining how well Greece does this year. Lose in qualifying, and that puts a lot of strain on the other three teams. Panathinaikos also has a tough road ahead, so if they can at least get a win in their decider against Rangers, that would be key.

Poland, Cyprus, and Austria had the best performances, closely followed by Sweden and Scotland. Only one team from any of those countries lost last week. It is now a question of whether they can kick on from here and put themselves in an even better position.

Although Denmark went unbeaten, they had just one victory from their four sides. That means we will have to watch them closely in next week’s second legs. Norway and Israel can also be satisfied with how the week went, especially the former. They will have all five teams beyond this stage. Whether the Israelis can still have their full complement of teams as well is another matter.

Keep an eye out on the countries ranked 16 through 20, as they are the ones with the most work to do. That will tell us just how much of a battle there will be for the top 15 this term.

Battle for Ninth: Czechs With Weak Start

For the second year running, a battle for ninth place is going on. The difference this time is that Türkiye has a larger head start. That lead increased by 0.100 points more after the week’s action, where two of Czechia’s three teams lost.

For perspective, the Czechs went through qualifying last summer with an overall record of 19-3-2. That was from six weeks of play (they had no representatives in the first qualifying round). Türkiye went 10-5-5 in that same stretch, with the same number of weeks involved.

It is already a dangerous situation for Czechia, as Sparta Praha, their UECL team, lost the first leg. Of course, having only lost by one goal on the road keeps them in the tie. But, chasing this early on is never an ideal situation. The pressure on them and Baník Ostrava are already high. If neither can reach a league phase, it is already a massive advantage to the Turks.

Going into next week, Türkiye just needs İstanbul Başakşehir to advance. If that happens, and Sparta and/or Baník do not, Czechia is in serious trouble.

Battle for Sixth/Seventh: Belgium Already Piling Pressure

The battle for the places six through eight in the rankings also commenced this past week. It was not an ideal start for Netherlands nor Portugal, while Belgium is in the best position of the trio.

The Belgians will be looking to have all five teams in a group phase for the third season running. That was also the case for Portugal last term, while Netherlands had five of six. Although none of the trios’ UECL sides won, Sporting Charleroi was the only one not to lose. That was away from home as well, so they have the upper hand.

It is too early to tell how this will play out, but if neither AZ or Santa Clara are able to overturn their deficits, their respective countries will be in deep very early on. Charleroi still has their work cut out as well, but their task is less arduous since they do not have to come from behind.

A Look at Everyone Else

Looking at the other five nations not currently involved in a battle, Albanian had a dream week, with three wins from three. The contrast to that of Malta, Estonia, and Lithuania could not be any greater.

Three of those four nations sit on four wins this season overall. Lithuania is the exception, and really could use a better showing. Kauno Žalgiris’ victory was just the second this summer for the Baltic nation. Seeing that all three of their teams could get eliminated this round, it could end up being a disastrous 2025/26 for them.

Of course, the aim for the quartet is to increase their coefficient enough to avoid getting anywhere closer to the bottom five. So far, Estonia and Albania in particular have done a good job at that.

San Marino’s only remaining team will return to play in the third qualifying round, as Virtus received a bye in the UECL champions path.