UEFA Coefficient Analysis 25/26: Qualifiers Week 5

The first UEFA coefficient analysis following the second half of qualifying is here. There were many close ties in the first legs of the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Conference League third qualifying rounds. These next four weeks play a particularly vital role in the rankings, as well as the battles that take place all throughout.

After week five of qualifiers, here is The Deck’s latest UEFA coefficient analysis.

Before starting, it is important to note that the access list for the 2027/28 season is not yet confirmed, since it is the first of a new three-year cycle. As such, the battles mentioned in this article are based off the current access list used until more information is known about a potential new access list.

UEFA Coefficient Analysis: Qualifiers Week 5

Battle for 50th: Gibraltar Staying in Contention

There were no changes in the battle for 50th, but things could end up being decided before the league phase even begins. Four countries are still trying to avoid joining Georgia, Wales, and San Marino in the bottom five.

Of the quartet still competing, only Gibraltar earned points last week. Lincoln Red Imps’ draw continues to give them hope. They still remain a little more than a point behind North Macedonia for 50th. Speaking of the Balkan nation, Shkëndija’s defeat is less damaging, seeing they still have at least nine more games in Europe.

The pressure is on Belarus and Luxembourg, as their respective teams fell in the Conference League first legs. If they fail to turn things around next week, there will be no more teams in Europe from either nation this term. However, even if they are eliminated, avoiding defeat will be key. A win would see either or both pass Montenegro, who is already out. That would almost surely guarantee a top 50 finish.

In principle, North Macedonia has the biggest advantage here. They have more than enough chances to avoid the bottom five. Whether Belarus and/or Luxembourg will join them really depends on next week. As for Gibraltar, they still have minimum three games. That increases should Lincoln win one more tie this summer. With that said, they have the most work to do without a doubt.

Battle for 33rd/38th: Iceland Making Further Headway, Faroes With Two Wins

The race for places 33rd to 38th had a rather average week. Save for Liechtenstein, everyone grabbed points. With that said, some will be much happier with how the week went than others.

It can easily be said that the biggest winners of the week are Iceland and the Faroe Islands. The former has added further daylight between themselves and 34th, while the latter was the only one in this race to collect two wins. Of course, Iceland started the year with a sizable lead. That has only increased now, and if they can get at least one of Breiðablik or Víkingur Reykjavík into a league phase, that should be more than enough for them.

Ireland and Moldova have now been made to sweat with their UEFA coefficient, especially the latter. At least with Shelbourne’s win in the Europa League, the Irish are closing in on a league phase spot. Milsami Orhei did prevail in the UECL, but their tie is far from over. They will need to reach the competition’s main rounds in order to give their nation hope of remaining 33rd or better.

The chasing pack saw a mix of results. Latvia, Finland, Kosovo, and Kazakhstan all collected victories. That is a promising sign for the bunch. Armenia and Bosnia had draws as they are still in contention to guarantee a group phase spot next week. Keep a very close eye on this group, as they are the ones who are posing the threat on Iceland, Ireland, and Moldova for the top 33.

Going into next week’s deciders, Moldova, Faroe Islands, and Liechtenstein could be eliminated, which would shake things up. The six countries below the Moldovans will certainly smell blood, especially if Ireland loses their two current UECL teams.

Battle for 22nd/29th: Romania Rules, Sluggish Slovaks

There were quite the changes in the battle for 22nd and 29th spots in the five-year UEFA coefficient rankings. Most of the nations in this race earned a win, though Romania in particular will be happy with their two victories. The result has seen them pass Hungary, who dropped to 24th after a poor week with just a draw from three games.

Romania is now in a very good position as they will almost surely have three teams in the playoff rounds. Only Ukraine looks set to join them with three teams in that last round of qualification. Croatia could also do so if Hajduk Split holds on to their lead. Still, the Romanians are looking good. Should they get three wins out of three next time out, they will jump into the top 22.

Slovenia will be very satisfied with how the week went. Celje practically assured themselves a playoff round berth after a huge win. Hungary, Slovakia, Azerbaijan, and Bulgaria are already in big trouble, likewise Serbia. All of them could all be down to just one team after next week. If that happens, then their hopes of a top 22 place will take a serious hit.

Heading into the return legs for the third qualifying round, Romania and Ukraine could really put themselves in an excellent position if they hold off. Slovenia could also recover and start to really make a push for 22nd place. Pay close attention to how many sides each nation has left following this round. Any with one will see their hopes of 22nd take a serious hit – even their place in the top 29 could be under siege.

Battle for 12th/15th Poland Pegged, Cyprus Continues Domination

We are seeing some really interesting things occur in the battle for places 11 to 15 in the five-year UEFA coefficient ranking. It was a disappointing week for many, as none of the six teams ranked 11th through 16th managed multiple wins. However, three of the four in that chasing pack from 17th to 20th managed two – or in Cyprus’ case, three – victories. That quartet also earned 0.500 (Cyprus won 0.875), something the other six failed to do.

This was the first week where Poland truly showed some struggles. Only Jagiellonia Białystok won, while the other three lost. No reason to push the panic button just yet though, as they are still in an excellent position. If Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa progress in the UECL, then they will certainly feeling good about their chances for 12th.

Greece has had a weird start to their season, with just one win from nine matches. All three of Panathinaikos, PAOK, and AEK Athens drew last week, making it the second week in a row where the country ended up with three stalemates. If they lose another team, then their grip on 12th will start to wobble for sure.

Norway could find themselves in serious trouble, with only Brann picking up a win last week. Viking and Fredrikstad are in serious trouble, while Rosenborg managed a draw. If none of the latter trio can make it to the league phase, then the Nordic nation could see themselves slide down the ranking.

Denmark had a disastrous week, as both of their UECL teams lost. Their top 15 spot is already in danger. A similar thing can be said for Austria, who failed to register a win from their four representatives. None of the four are in serious trouble in their ties though, which certainly gives them hope. Switzerland, meanwhile, is already in a perilous situation. They have, for all intents and purposes, lost one team as Lugano suffered a shocking 5-0 home loss. This could get ugly very fast for them, as it is looking likely that they will only have two teams come the league phase.

Scotland, Sweden, and Cyprus continue to look very good. A total of 25 wins and just four losses sees the trio keep their push for 15th alive. It could get even better for the Scots, who could even challenge for 12th place given how those above them are doing. If Dundee United can oust Rapid Wien, the effect will be massive in this ranking.

So, we have a race going into the second legs. The UECL ties in particular will be well worth the watch. There is much reason to feel like we could see some huge changes by the time the playoff round rolls around.

Battle for Ninth: Turks Holding On

The race for ninth in the UEFA coefficient ranking continues to be a one-on-one clash between Türkiye and Czechia. The difference is that unlike the last couple of summers, neither of the two have looked particularly impressive.

For both nations, they managed 0.400 more points this week, as the UECL teams all won. Hopes of a second Champions League group phase spot, however, does not look good, especially for the Czechs. Viktoria Plzeň suffered a heavy defeat, while Fenerbahçe also lost. The impact of this is far less damaging though.

Czechia, who has had two more games, currently leads in the seasonal coefficient haul, yet they are still 3.200 points behind the Turks for ninth. All hope is not lost for either of the two, and the next three weeks will be pivotal in deciding this race.

Battle for Sixth/Seventh: Perfect Week for Trio

This past week was the paragon of why losing a side right away is so disastrous. All three of Netherlands, Portugal, and Belgium ended up with perfect records. However, it is the Belgians who sees their gap to Portugal widen.

Of course, it is worth remembering that Sporting Charleroi was knocked out in the second qualifying round, leaving Belgium with one less team right away. They are still in the running for seventh place, but the pressure is already high on the remaining four teams.

The Dutch and Portuguese teams just need to keep up what they are doing, and they will be fine. A potential Feyenoord vs Benfica tie in the UCL playoff round could be huge, and effectively decide sixth spot.

A Look at Everyone Else

We conclude with the seven nations not currently involved in a UEFA coefficient battle at this point. We saw some movement, as Estonia and Albania jumped ahead of Malta and Lithuania, respectively. Fittingly, it was the Estonians and Albanians who were the only ones to grab any points this week.

Lithuania, Northern Ireland, and San Marino are on the chopping block, and could see their campaigns conclude next week. Save for the last ranked nation, there should be disappointment on how the season has gone. The Northern Irish found themselves in the battle for 50th at the start of the season, and only survived because those below them did worse. Still, both they and Lithuania could end up being dragged further down the rankings to start next season.

Meanwhile, France had their opening game through OGC Nice, who lost in the UCL at home. If they fail to overcome their deficit, that equals two less matches, and two less chances at coefficient points, in the coming two weeks.

Estonia and Albania could still end up having no teams left after this week. However, they will be the happier of the two as they will be in with a shot at advancing.